Knowing when to Hold 'Em

Descent into the Maelstrom

So I was riding high. My plan was working. Then I ran into bad beat Wednesday, which begat bad play Wednesday, which dissipated my cushion. I am back to my initial stake (plus a few chips) and starting the long climb upwards again.

Like everyone else I must share 2 bad beats. First, I am playing a $2/4 table at UB. I probably should not have reached for this level, but I planned to play tight and aggressive. So I get pocket AA and raise. Two call and I am jacked. Three clubs flop (I have the A of clubs), but I bet one more time. 2 call. An offcard flops, so I check as does everyone else. A fourth club flops (my prayers are answered), I bet and get raised. I cannot believe it, and just am in shock when my opponent shows the straight flush. One card could beat me - and this portended a series of horrible losses.

Later that day I am playing in a SNG. We are down to 5 players - I have the 3rd most chips and am playing quite well (if I say so myself). I am on the button and call with A8 offsuit. The flop comes A 8 10. I make a large bet which the SB sees (the BB is all in from a short stack). The 4th card is a 3 - I go all in - the SB sees me. The river is a Q and he held J9. He called over 2000 chips on a straight draw! I would love to play him on a daily basis - but that day my SNG ended when he gambled and won.

So after I recovered my temporary depression and insanity, I tried to put the day into perspective. Several lessons come to mind.

• Do not go up in betting level until you are ready
• Try to analyze why your opponents are betting or calling
• When in doubt go down rather than up in limits
• Winning at poker requires patience (I know I say that almost everyday - but I am trying to actually learn it)
• I am definitely getting great entertainment value from playing online thus far
• I am not yet a good poker player - but maybe one day

So I still have my initial stake (and did fair on Thursday and started out great today). Back to the game plan and remember "a slip is not a fall".

Key link added

A response to a RGP post gave this key reference - all the odds that one can imagine. I have placed it on the key poker links.

On my way to the challenge

One of my first posts mentions a challenge - An interesting challenge. Too summarize, one starts with a small stake, and slowly works ones way up to playing larger stakes.

On UB I started with $100. After several weeks of alternately doing well, and then tilting, I decided to take this challenge. I was down to around $50. At that time I started focusing on $.25/.50 Texas Hold 'Em. Over about a week I stated to learn the things I had read. One should generally start with quality. Bet strong hands early. Slow play judiciously. Fold when you are likely beat.

I slowly started building my bankroll to the point that I could move up to $.50/1. Once I got to $100 I was ready. Then one day I had a few hours to enter a multi-table Omaha 8/b tourney (64 players) for $10+1. I really love playing this game, and believe that generally I am a bit better at Omaha and Hold 'Em. Tournament play requires great patience as you must wait for good cards and fold often after the flop.

I got on a nice run and made the final table. Unfortunately, I had to get to the airport at 5:30 to pick someone up. The tourney started at 2:00 and I thought it would finish on time. So when we get to 3 players left (and I have a huge chip lead) I go on conscious tilt - either I would win or lose quickly. I lost, but still won $86! That and a few excellent Hold 'Em days brought me over $200 - the breakpoint for playing $1/2. So now I am a $1/2 player. I am playing some SNGs, and hope to play a multi later this week. I still play some Omaha 8/b as a great alternative game.

So what have I learned thus far (oh - my bankroll is up to $379 this morning) -

• Read, read and then reread - most articles and books have great pearls of wisdom. We however must take the time to understand what we read. Learn a few lessons, and then practice those lessons. Go into each session with a game plan.
• Patience - let the game come to you. Whenever impatience takes over, I become a Big Fish!!!
• You will win some hands on the river; you will lose some hands on the river. Poker still has luck involved. Skill puts you into position to have good luck
• Play on UB and always check to see what you opponents had in the hole when they get to the river. UB makes this easier than Party Poker (you have to ask for email to see hole cards on Party). Knowing the river cards allows you to better gauge your opponents. As you accumulate knowledge, you will better understand their betting patterns.
• Read, read and then try to learn

And if you want to open an account on UB, please email me for the referral. One reader did, and I publicly thank him profusely!!

Both players win in the long run - or how I won a suck out

AQ offsuited. 4 players see one raise (not from me). Flop comes 2,4,5 (rainbow). One player bets, two fold, I see the bet.

Playing 1/2 Hold 'EM on UB. Next card is another 5. My single opponent now bets, I call.

So what am I thinking? I raise this question because I do win the hand and my opponent is aggravated.

If you have been following the hand, there was $10 in the pot prior to the turn. My opponent bet $2, thus I have 6:1 pot odds. Once we have figured out the pot odds, we must figure out my odds of drawing a winning card. I figured that I probably had 10 outs. How did I figure that?

I was guessing that both the A and Q were overcards (if my opponent even had a pair). This was a reasonably loose game, and I had seen him raise the blind with high cards only. Each of the A and Q were worth 3 outs, making 6. My opponent only saw those outs. However, I reminded him that I had a gunshot straight draw (a 3 would give me a straight). This added 4 outs, giving me a total of 4 more outs. Thus I had 10 outs and 36 losers - or 3.6 :1. Since the pot odds exceeded my odds against, seeing the bet made complete sense. In fact, the river was a Q and I won a nice pot.

Looking at the hand from my opponents view, did his bet on the turn make sense? Absolutely, if I see his bet he has the same 6:1 pot odds. He has a major advantage in the hand, and will clearly win more money than he loses.

You can calculate expected values in this hand, and we both are long term winners. Sometimes that occurs in poker.

Think about this analysis carefully the next time you are the victim of a "suck out". They happen on a regular basis. As long as we make consistent logical bets, we should not worry about these losses. They make poker interesting, anxiety provoking and even fun. For more on "suck outs" check out the two links that I have added in the references. I have been studying these articles. They are helping me make good decisions about seeing bets on the turn.

More on playing like Phil Ivey

Comments to my last post suggested that taking time was not relevant to the internet - the time should be spent prior to sitting down at the monitor. Your honor, I object.

I know generally what I want to do, however, I have not thought through every variation that I have seen thus far. Sometimes, a short pause for reflection of what has transpired prior to my bet helps me make a better decision.

These are not necessarily tremendously difficult decisions, rather I find that taking a few seconds keeps me from becoming a maniac (it is always more fun to call or bet than to fold). At this stage of my poker development I must continue to remember that you want to minimize your losses and maximize your winnings. You should fold unless you have a good defendable reason to call or bet. I must remind myself of this truism regularly. Developing the discipline to think before clicking on a button helps me make better decisions.

Play more like Phil Ivey!

I was watching my tape of the WPT finals this weekend. The commentors (who were generally annoying) made a cogent observation on Phil Ivey. He never rushes to bet or check. His discipline is beautiful. Prior to making a decision he obviously thinks!!

Over the past few days I have tried to emulate his deliberations. I have noticed that when I do, my decision making quality improves dramatically. Most of my bad decisions are fast ones.

When I get impatient and start clicking the automatic buttons, I sometimes make mistakes. Poker is not a process that requires rushing. Playing deliberately is not necessarily playing slowly.

Sometimes I do get into a groove where I actually think carefully prior to each decision. At those times I do quite well. But when I do not think, then my game suffers.

So when I next sit at the computer to play, I must remember to play like Phil Ivey and think before I act.

More on Omaha 8/b

A very nice essay on Omaha 8/b - Introduction to Omaha Holdem Strategy. Now I need to study some more.

Hold 'Em and Omaha 8/b

I have been playing both - about 2/3 hold 'em and 1/3 omaha. Most poker blogs talk a lot about hold 'em. So today I plan to open some thinking about omaha 8/b.

One thing that attracts me to this game is the increased number of possibilities. As one of my buddies said when we were playing the other day - I like this game - you have to think!

Simply considered, omaha 8/b gives you 6 hold 'em possibilities playing both high and low. The permutations and combinations are greatly increased. Because of this, the game generally gets more action. Many hands go to the river - many hands!

You expect a much higher rate of seeing the flop. The flops gives you so many possibilities and so much heartache. I have seen it written that good omaha 8/b players can do much better than hold 'em pros.

I am still learning the game but would offer these tips.

• Winning high breaks down to 25% boats, 25% flushes and 25% straights - therefore if one of those is possible (in a low limit game) you must assume someone has it!
• Low hands are only possible 40% of the time. Therefore, even the coveted A2 is a shaky bet before the flop. You often have to pay to the river only to see your low get burned.
• Therefore, you want a high possibility on most hands. Flushes are desirable - so you love 2 suited hands, e.g., As6s2cQc gives you 2 good flush opportunities and a good low opportunity.
• Pairs are good - not great. If you flop a set, then you still will lose often to a straight or a flush - unless you make a boat.

I recommend trying this game online as an alternative. It does help you think and better concentrate on reading the board. Start with free play or very low stakes because it is very different.

Knowing when to fold

On the BB I get dealt pocket 3s. Of course I limp in - I've read 1 in 7.5 times you flop a set. So I flop a set - K 3 8 - rainbow suits.

I bet and 2 players (of a 6 person ring) call. Next card is an 8. Great I have a boat! Time to float. The opponents are fairly loose. I am hoping they have Ks each. I bet and they both call.

This is a big one. I'm all ready to reel them in. The river is a third 8!. I assume someone has me beat. I check, the next bettor bets out, and then the button raises. I fold, the first bettor has the King, and the button has the 4th 8! At least I did not waste the last 2 big bets!

Party and mucked hands

I am trying to understand why I had two intelligent comments that you could see what cards players see the river with on Party. I had hands emailed to me - and sure enough I could see what hands they lost with. However, in playing, when you click on hand history you get this instead.

** Dealing River ** [ Qc ]
ratchethead bets [15].
Kokomo23 raises [65].
JFMWD calls [65].
ratchethead calls [50].
Kokomo23 shows a flush, king high.
JFMWD doesn't show.
ratchethead doesn't show.
Kokomo23 wins 405 chips from the main pot with a flush, king high.

So I have to have an email sent of the hand to see what cards they did not show. On UB you can see in the hand history window.

So my original post on this is slightly mistake, but not totally inaccurate.

UB could upgrade their hand history email procedures - that is a weakness - especially for those who use Poker Tracker (which I should start using)>